The 2024 presidential race, which one pundit dubbed the “Hemlock election,” is finally over and voters picked their poison. Trump won over 300 electoral votes, all swing states, and probably the national popular vote. He exceeded his 2020 performance almost everywhere and gained ground among most identity groups, making particularly significant inroads with black men and Latinos.[1]While these results suggest a decisive win for Trump, the election was still quite close. A one percent shift in the vote nationwide would have produced very different results.
Given the close pre-election polling Trump’s win was less shocking than in 2016, but in one sense it should be a greater shock. Voters had a much clearer picture of Trump this year than in 2016; during his first term and thereafter he demonstrated in many ways and by any objective criteria his unfitness for office. Yet, he still won. How did it happen and what does it mean for the future?
Trump benefited greatly from a disillusioned, disgruntled electorate
According to many analysts, voter anxiety about the economy combined with general dissatisfaction over the condition of the nation and desire for change were the keys to Trump’s victory. The vast majority of voters surveyed in AP Vote Cast exit polling expressed concern over the cost of groceries, health care, housing, and gas. Two-thirds of respondents in CNN’s exit polls described the economy as being in bad shape. Nearly half said they were worse off than four years ago. They voted overwhelmingly for Trump. Economic concerns far outstripped any other issue for voters.
Such pocketbook concerns were coupled with widespread voter malaise over the state of our nation and its governance. According to polling:
- Two-thirds of Americans think the country is on the wrong track.
- Trust in the federal government stands at 22 percent. Most believe it unfairly benefits some people over others and doesn’t respond to the needs of ordinary citizens.
- A bare 15 percent of Americans believe elected officials care what they think.
- A record low 28 percent are satisfied with the way our democracy is working.
- Fifty-nine percent of exit poll respondents disapproved of the Biden presidency.
These voter sentiments presented an extremely challenging playing field for even the strongest incumbent party candidate, and Kamala Harris was far from that. By the same token, they gave a huge boost to even a deeply flawed opposition candidate like Trump.
The election was not a vote of confidence in Trump or mandate for MAGA
Trump has a substantial cult-like following of true believers who embrace his outrageousness as a giant middle finger to progressives and establishment “elites.” However, this hard-core base is estimated to be only about one-third of Republican voters and 15 percent of the electorate overall. Most of his voters were motivated by factors other than allegiance to Trump and opted for him as the perceived lesser of two evils. While Harris was a weak candidate, Trump was weaker. He was more unpopular than Harris (53% disapproval) and many of his voters harbored serious misgivings about him.
Don’t demonize Trump voters
Some of those incredulous over the election outcome condemn Trump voters as fascists, racists, misogynists, or fools and insist that the nation has lost its way. While saying this may feel good, it’s as wrong as it is unhelpful. According to a great many analysts,[2]See, e.g., here, here, here, and here. what’s really at work here is the increasing class divide in the American electorate along education and income levels that is changing longstanding voting patterns. The groups on either side of this divide live disparate lives within America. Their differences include economic and social wellbeing, most importantly, but also where they live, what information sources they consume, and their cultural values.
Unsurprisingly, the contrasting political perspectives of these two cohorts reflect their contrasting realities. For example, how’s the economy? Members of the more educated, higher income cohort–especially the elites who now dominate the Democratic Party–generally experience much better economic times than the less educated, lower income cohort. Is crime a major problem? The former cohort generally has less exposure to crime and its consequences than the latter. How good are public schools? They vary greatly by socioeconomic factors, affording children of the former cohort much better access to quality education.
There is nothing deplorable or ignorant about so-called ordinary Americans in the less educated, less financially secure cohort embracing Trump’s antiestablishment message and worrying less over any threat to democracy he may pose. In fact, they have lost ground at the hands of establishment elites in both parties who have long pursued economic and other policies that worked to their disadvantage. In fact, our democracy, dominated by these establishment elites for decades, has not worked well for them.[3]See here for an illustration of these points.
Trump’s gains among most minority group voters further refute the notion that his supporters must be bigots. These voters share many of the same realities, concerns, and frustrations as white working-class voters as well as their more conservative cultural values. Their votes prioritize these factors over the identity politics practiced by Democrats.
The election results pose challenges for both parties
The increasing salience of class-based differences in voting has major consequences for both political parties. Indeed, the two parties have largely switched identities. Ruy Teixeira, a left-leaning expert on political demographics, observes:
“The Democratic Party may be the party of blue America, especially deep blue metro America, but its bid to be the party of the ordinary American, the common man and woman, is falling short.
“There is a simple—and painful—reason for this. The Democrats really are no longer the party of the common man and woman. The priorities and values that dominate the party today are instead those of educated, liberal America which only partially overlap—and sometimes not at all—with those of ordinary Americans.”
Teixeira points out that Democrats can’t continue to bleed their traditional base voters and expect to win national elections with mainly progressive elites. He suggests many ways they can reconnect with “normie voters, particularly working-class voters of all races.” Other pundits likewise stress the need for Democrats to focus more on the concerns of everyday Americans and less on the so-called “luxury beliefs” pushed by the far left such as extreme trans ideology.
Trump and Republicans also face challenges. The Republican Party has been uprooted from its traditional foundations as well and transformed into a populist party subservient to Trump. While Trump expanded his populist base, he must now deliver. However, it’s questionable whether he will. His campaign was long on histrionics, bombast, falsehoods, and venom but offered little by way of substantive policies. Even if Trump comes up with a coherent policy agenda that speaks to the needs of his voters, he may lack the wherewithall to execute it. (See below)
Does Trump pose a serious threat to democracy?
Maybe. Trump gives every indication of wanting to govern as an autocrat but he may not be very good at it.
Our constitutional system has evolved in ways that concentrate in any president far more power over the lives of its citizens than the founders envisioned. However, Trump is the first president to persistently flout our democratic traditions. His words and past actions make clear that he has no respect for the rule of law or the norms of democracy. His early moves following the 2024 election suggest more of the same.
He could be even worse this time around. For one thing, he won’t have to face the voters again. For another, internal guardrails that provided some constraints on him during his first term will be missing this time. Trump’s many bizarre picks for positions in his administration confirm his intent to surround himself with yes-people whose main qualification is loyalty to him. He also threatens to convert many career executive branch positions into political slots in order to install more lackeys to do his bidding.
Additionally, Trump will have a more compliant Congress to start with. Republicans regained control of the Senate, probably with a sufficient majority of Trump loyalists to offset the few remaining GOP members who might have the courage and integrity to push back against him. (How the Senate responds regarding confirmation of his most outrageous nominees will provide an early test of their willingness to put institutional interests and the public interest above fealty to Trump.) Republicans also retained their House majority, completing the prized “trifecta.”
However, there are some contraindications. Trump lacks the personal traits to be an effective authoritarian. He’s intellectually lazy, unfocused, impulsive, erratic, and indifferent to any cause but himself. He is not bent on world conquest or other grand schemes; his only real agenda is self-gratification. Relying on sycophants selected for loyalty rather than merit to implement whatever plans Trump does choose to pursue presents its own challenges. Many of his key picks so far appear to lack the knowledge, experience, and gravitas to be very effective if they are confirmed.
Trump’s control of Congress probably won’t last beyond his first two years. The party out of power almost always gains seats in midterm elections and the Senate math for 2026 favors Democrats. The Republicans’ House majority remains quite thin and will likewise be vulnerable. The losses could be severe if Trump’s initial years produce the donnybrook many expect.
The federal judiciary will stand as a key guardrail in Trump’s second term as it did during his first. A recent Supreme Court decision strengthens the role of the courts in checking executive branch actions based on questionable legal rationales. Those on the left should reconsider their unjustified attacks on the legitimacy of the Court. They will need it to be strong and credible if their dire predictions for Trump’s second term materialize.
Of course, there is ample cause for concern even if Trump falls short of being the all-powerful dictator his critics fear. The next four years are almost sure to be a rocky ride for the nation and much of the world. While his second term may not resemble a reprise of the Third Reich, it will likely be as chaotic as his first if not more so.
Trump’s second term will need aggressive but credible scrutiny
No matter how bad Trump’s second term turns out to be, the worst mistake his critics could make is to repeat the “resistance” approach they used during his first term. The media engaged in blatantly biased coverage and false narratives—most notably, spending years flogging baseless allegations of a Trump-Russian conspiracy—at great cost to its own credibility. Democrats in Congress also overreached. For example, their first impeachment of Trump rested on dubious grounds and accomplished nothing. The second was stronger but came too late to succeed. By pursuing it, Democrats forfeited a more viable chance for bipartisan censure.
This pattern continued after Trump left office. He appeared to be on the ropes following the 2022 midterm election debacle when he once again led Republicans to defeat with the highly flawed candidates he promoted. Democrats promptly breathed new life into him with their legally dubious and obviously politically motivated prosecution in New York.
Trump gives his critics plenty to work with. They would be most effective by playing it straight and relying on objective, fact-based opposition rather than stooping to his level.
The threats to our democracy go beyond Trump
The challenges to our democracy run deeper than Trump and will likely persist regardless of what happens in his second term. Both political parties are increasingly dominated by their extremes and disconnected from the American mainstream. Political polarization stifles constructive debate and compromise, breeding government dysfunction. Few members of Congress from either party seem willing to put the public interest ahead of partisanship. Neither party shows the slightest interest in addressing or even acknowledging the monumental fiscal crisis facing the nation.
As much as we complain about our politics and leaders, American citizens are ultimately responsible for the quality of our democracy. We get the elected officials and government we deserve. Improvement will only come if the American people demand it. How that might happen is a subject for a future post.