The Presidential Debate and Its Aftermath

First the good news: The absence of an audience and the fact that the moderators did not engage in debate with the debaters eliminated distractions and enabled the candidates to be themselves. The bad news, which permeated everything else, is that the candidates were indeed themselves.

Overall, the debate reinforced how degraded our national politics have become with a presidential contest featuring two highly unpopular candidates who, for different reasons, both appear unfit for the presidency. As the ever-acerbic Maureen Dowd put it, we face an electoral choice between “the ghastly” and “the ghostly.”

The primary, pervasive takeaway from the debate was that President Biden is significantly impaired. Based on his excruciating debate performance and prior incidents, it’s hard not to doubt his capacity to serve a second term. Few are buying the notion that he was the victim of a “cold” or just having a “bad night.” Instead, many prominent voices on the left now openly question his electability and fitness for office and are calling for him to drop out of the race. (This includes some who had previously downplayed concerns over his acuity.)  

The intense focus on Biden diverted attention from Trump’s own miserable performance. He hardly answered any of the moderators’ questions and spewed a torrent of exaggerations, misrepresentations, and outright lies. Some were so preposterous as to insult the intelligence of anyone listening. The notion that Trump “won” the debate, at least in any positive sense, is bizarre. At best, he was marginally less outrageous and obnoxious than in previous debates. Even this probably resulted more from the format (limiting his ability to interrupt) than any genuine improvement on his part.

Who knows exactly what will unfold in the aftermath of the debate. Clearly, however, the main consequence is to leave Democrats in a very difficult bind of their own making (surely those close to Biden have long known of his issues) and very little time to resolve it.

One option is to ride it out with Biden. Actually, this is the only option unless Biden can be persuaded to step aside. So far, there is no indication that he will; to the contrary, he seems to be pushing back hard.  Continuing with Biden is risky and likely to become more so. There were major concerns over Biden’s physical and mental fitness going into the debate and it strongly reinforced them. According to a post-debate poll, close to three-quarters of registered voters think Biden lacks the mental capacity to be president and should not be running. Almost half of Democratic voters think he should not run.

These concerns will not simply blow over; people can’t unsee what they saw in the debate. Assurances of his fitness and rejection of any contrary suggestions  will no longer be taken at face value. Insulting and dismissing as “bedwetters” those who are skeptical based on what they observed first hand is likely to backfire; it will only engender resentment at being gaslighted. Biden will not get away with a stealth campaign; everything he says and does will be scrutinized for signs of possible decline. There will be intense pressure for him to submit to unscripted events such as media interviews and press conferences in order to prove himself. Assuming that his debate performance was not an aberration, these events don’t figure to go well.

The other option is for Democratic elder statesmen (Obama, Schumer, etc.) and close confidants to convince Biden—probably both Joe and Jill—that he should step aside for the good of the party, his legacy, and the country. However, this option carries its own complications. First among them is what to do about Kamala Harris. While she is as unpopular as Biden, dropping her would be a major challenge for identity-obsessed Democrats. Another problem is holding an open convention. This would invite chaos and warfare among the many Democratic factions that have up to now coalesced behind Biden.

One possible approach: (1) Convince Biden to withdraw and to urge his delegates to support a specific candidate, such as the governor of one of two key swing states—Whitmer of Michigan or Shapiro of Pennsylvania. (2) Convince Harris to remain on the ticket as vice presidential nominee.

Whatever strategy the Democrats adopt to address the mess they find themselves in following the debate, they need to act quickly and decisively.