Month: July 2023

As America gears up for the 2024 presidential election, the political landscape is bleak:

• • Public support for both Democrats and Republicans in our two-party duopoly has declined steadily over the past two decades. Almost twice as many Americans (49%) identify as independents than with either major party (25% each).

• • The leading candidates for each party’s presidential nomination are extremely unpopular; the public dreads a Biden-Trump rematch in 2024. Most prominent leaders in both parties also have negative favorability ratings.

• • Neither party has a policy agenda that aligns with majority public opinion. The Republican Party has degenerated into little more than the cult of Trump with no discernible agenda other than subservience to him. The Democratic Party’s agenda, increasingly set by its far left, embraces the divisive politics of identity, victimization, and tribalism. This turns off most voters, including many of its own party members.

• •  Civility has virtually disappeared from our civil discourse. The activists who dominate both parties drive our politics toward polarization and away from collaborative engagement to solve problems. While differing in their objectives, activists on both sides use similar methods. They suppress dissent and even good faith debate, seek to delegitimize individuals and institutions that don’t toe their line, and rarely let facts or reason get in the way of their ideologies and orthodoxies.

• • Congress, mired in gridlock and dysfunction, struggles to perform its most basic tasks and abdicates much of its constitutional authority to the executive branch and the courts.

• • One of the few things that unites the parties is fiscal irresponsibility. Both turn a blind eye to the huge fiscal challenges that pose an existential threat to future generations. They occasionally join forces to exacerbate them.

• • Unsurprisingly given the above, the vast majority of the public thinks the country is headed in the wrong direction. Americans have little confidence in the Nation’s governmental institutions or most other institutions, such as the media.

• • Our politicians and their media cheerleaders are seriously out of touch with a majority of the citizenry. Most Americans are not ideologically rigid; they are pragmatic and generally hold centrist or moderate political views. There is broad public agreement on numerous policy issues that stymie our ruling classes. Ordinary citizens much prefer constructive engagement and compromise over today’s polarization and extremism.

• A group called No Labels is gearing up to enter this fraught arena, laying the foundation for a third-party campaign in 2024. They are considering running a bipartisan “unity ticket” of candidates for president and vice president (one Republican and one Democrat), and they have published a centrist “common sense” policy agenda. A recent poll shows about 20 percent support for a No Labels ticket even before its candidates are named.

One might think the potential of formidable competition like this would prompt the duopolists to take a hard look at their 2024 offerings. However, the two major parties show no sign of humility or introspection. A headline from a New York Times op-ed succinctly captures their message to the voters: “Repulsed by Biden vs. Trump? Tough.”

The conventional wisdom, apparently shared by both parties, is that Democrats have more to lose from a No Labels candidacy. Therefore, while the Republican response has been somewhat muted, panicked Democrats are in full attack mode. They even sued in one swing state to keep No Labels off the ballot. In typical fashion, their media allies strain to discredit No Labels as a dark money,  closet Trump-supporting, Republican front group. This is nonsense. No Labels has promoted bipartisanship throughout its existence of well over a decade. Its leadership includes many prominent individuals—Democrats, Republicans, and independents—with long and distinguished records of public service and a clear commitment to good government.

Attacks disparaging the No Labels policy agenda as vague and anodyne (e.g., here and here) also miss the mark. Unlike the major parties, No Labels does not stake out one-sided positions that it claims are unquestionably the only “right” answers to complex problems. Rather, its common sense platform advocates core criteria that provide a framework for debate and compromise to arrive at specific solutions that can achieve broad, bipartisan support.

The critics do raise one legitimate concern. While No Labels may be the best choice for many voters, it’s very hard to see a realistic path to electoral college victory for it given today’s entrenched, fractured politics. At this point, it seems more likely to play a spoiler role and, if the conventional wisdom is correct,^[1]Of course, the conventional could be wrong. perhaps tip the election to Trump. Unappealing as a second Biden term may be, returning Trump to the White House would be far worse.

However, this is no reason for No Labels to stand down now. There are months to go before the presidential race fully takes shape and a lot can happen in the interim. Moreover, the No Labels leadership is quite clear that they have no interest in being a spoiler. They will drop out if they see no reasonable chance to win the presidency as circumstances unfold. They will also pull out if one or the other major party nominates a candidate more acceptable to the public than Biden and Trump.

Indeed, there is every reason for No Labels to stay in the race over the coming months in order to keep pressure on the major parties to shift back toward the mainstream. Clearly, this is No Labels’ overriding goal. Whether it can achieve it remains to be seen but the effort is surely worthwhile. If either major party does nominate a less flawed candidate and adopts a policy agenda more in tune with American public sentiment, it will be a real victory for No Labels and for the American people. It will also greatly improve that party’s chance of winning the presidency in 2024.

The Supreme Court has come under withering attack from the left as it produces decisions not to their liking. Rather than just critiquing these decisions on the merits, many of the Court’s detractors insist that the Court itself is somehow “illegitimate.” One common line of attack is that the Court is a radical, even imperial body that has gone rogue and is wholly disconnected from the American people. In this telling, the Court has lost public confidence because its decisions are fundamentally at odds with  public sentiment.

Like other assaults on the Court’s legitimacy,^[1]See, e.g., here, here, here, and here. this is a false narrative. In recent years, researchers compared public opinion on issues presented in selected high-profile cases before the Court with how the Court ultimately decided those issues. The results are telling. Unsurprisingly, there are some cases in which the Court’s decisions do run counter to majority public opinion. Also unsurprisingly, there is a major disconnect between many of the Court’s decisions and the views of leftist politicians and media. For the most part, however, the Court’s decisions are well within the mainstream of American public opinion. In fact, the Court is more in tune with the public than are its critics.

This year, the researchers surveyed public opinion on 13 prominent cases before the Court. The issues included race preferences in college admissions, environmental regulation, freedom of speech and religion, student loan forgiveness, and voting. As in past years, survey respondents were categorized as Democrats, Republicans, and Independents. Polling on each issue was compiled for overall majority opinion and for each of the respondent subgroups. The Court’s disposition of two cases did not match the survey questions, thereby leaving 11 cases for comparison.^[2]The Court did not reach the merits in one of these cases; in the other, the Court focused on an issue different from the one that was polled.

The results:

• • The Court’s decisions aligned with majority public opinion in 8 of 10 cases; public opinion was evenly split in the other case.
  • The Court’s decision in one of the two cases that ran counter to public opinion was unanimous. This suggests that the law was fairly clear and simply incompatible with the public’s preference.^[3]The Court held in this case that internet platforms could not be sued for failing to remove content supporting the Islamic State.
  • The only other decision that went against majority opinion dealt with EPA’s regulatory jurisdiction over wetlands.
  • Regarding the polling subgroups, the Court’s decisions aligned with a majority of Independent respondents in 9 of the 11 cases and with a majority of Republicans in 6 of 10 (with one even split). A majority of Democrats supported the Court’s decision in 6 of 11 cases.
  • The highest profile cases were the two dealing with race preferences in college admissions. The Court’s decision holding such preferences unconstitutional^[4]The two cases were combined into one decision. has been criticized bitterly by Democratic politicians and left-leaning media. In stark contrast, the decision was strongly supported by overall public opinion as well as all respondent subgroups–Republicans, Independents, and Democrats alike.

While the Supreme Court is not supposed to decide cases based on public opinion, a large and persistent gap between the Court’s decisions and American public sentiment would be cause for concern. However, the survey results demonstrate that no such gap exists. The same holds true for the survey results in previous years.^[5]See here for prior year survey results. Last year’s survey results were more mixed and the highest profile decision, Dobbs, was quite unpopular. Nevertheless, the Court’s decisions still aligned with majority public opinion more often than not.^[6]See here for more on last year’s survey.

The voting patterns of the justices in the surveyed cases also contradict the critics’ narrative of a six-justice conservative monolith. Ten of the 13 cases were split decisions, but only four of them featured all the conservative/Republican appointee justices on one side and the three liberal/Democratic appointees on the other.^[7]Indeed, only five out of all the cases decided by the Court this term involved a 6-3 split along ideological lines. See here for this and other statistics. The six conservatives voted as a bloc only in those four cases. Notably, the three liberals voted in lockstep twice as often as the conservatives–in eight of the ten cases. Neither case in which they diverged was particularly ideologically charged.

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As the survey data show, accusations that the Court is fundamentally out of step with the American public and has lost their confidence are wrong. These accusations are also ironic given the low public standing of the accusers. Alarmingly, public trust in most American institutions is on the decline; the Supreme Court is no exception. However, the Court still ranks higher in public confidence than the President, and far above Congress and the media.^[8]See here for the latest results from Gallup.