Donald Trump will almost surely play a pivotal role in the election as the Republican nominee or as a spoiler. Either way, he is likely to cement a win for the Democratic ticket.
While Trump retains a substantial base in the Republican party and is the odds-on favorite to win the GOP nomination, he will face a huge challenge in the general election. His negatives consistently exceed his positives by a wide margin. In every election since his surprise win in 2016 he lost or was a major contributor to Republican losses.
Current polling shows Trump as competitive with or even leading President Biden in a rematch that most Americans dread. However, it’s unwise to put much stock in polls at this early stage. Trump is likely to fade as time goes by and “Trump fatigue” intensifies. His conduct in the wake of his 2020 defeat highlights his liabilities. His obsessive claims of a stolen election are patently and almost surely knowingly false. His actions relating to the election and the January 6 attack on the Capitol were clearly impeachable if not criminal. Trump’s legal problems could mount. His dubious indictment in New York probably gave him a boost, firing up his base and putting his GOP opponents in an awkward position. However, more serious criminal charges would be difficult to blow off.
Trump’s CNN “town hall” fiasco and other recent appearances reaffirm (if there was any lingering doubt) that he has not changed. He will once again campaign as a combative, divisive, thoroughly dishonest con artist and will make little effort to reach beyond his base. By contrast, although his administration has pursued a progressive agenda on many fronts, Biden will probably campaign as a moderate with much wider appeal to the electorate. Finally, while both are weak and highly unpopular candidates, Trump stands out as downright dangerous. He has repeatedly shown disdain for basic democratic norms and the rule of law.
In short, Trump is very unlikely to win back the presidency if he becomes the Republican nominee. But even if he loses the nomination, he will probably remain a major drag on the Republican ticket. Trump being Trump, it’s nearly impossible to picture him in this scenario graciously conceding and endorsing the winning GOP nominee. Far more likely, he would refuse to accept the primary results, perhaps stay in the race as an independent, or at a minimum discourage his voters from backing the nominee. In what figures to be a close general election, another Republican nominee would struggle mightily without the support of Trump and his base voters, or worse, in the face of their active opposition.
A Republican loss in the presidential election with Trump as nominee or spoiler would likely cost Republicans their slim House majority as well. And while the Senate math for 2024 favors a Republican takeover, the Trump effect could also jeopardize that result.
Can Republicans escape the curse of Trump in 2024? That’s a tall order. They would need to coalesce behind a non-Trump candidate who could somehow surmount the Trump base and win the nomination. Then, the nominee would need enough appeal to general election voters to offset the negative impact of a disgruntled Trump and his loyalists.
No such a candidate has emerged yet. Ron DeSantis, currently Trump’s main competitor, seems ill suited to the role. Instead of concentrating on his substantive accomplishments as Governor of Florida, DeSantis veered off into portraying himself as a combative and divisive mini-Trump “without the baggage.” This strategy isn’t working either with the Trump base or the broader public. Trump cultists remain loyal to him despite or even because of his “baggage.” They embrace Trump viscerally as a giant middle finger to the elites of both parties and a major irritant to liberals. Why should they settle for an imitation Trump like DeSantis when they can have the real thing? At the same time, DeSantis’s stunts pandering to the Trump base threaten to alienate non-Trump acolytes who make up most of the electorate.
It’s possible that DeSantis will adopt a new strategy or that another challenger will gain ground. At the very least, however, a successful challenger would need to set themselves apart from Trump by forthrightly rejecting his stolen election lies and condemning his post-election conduct. The challenger would also need to build a positive and forward-looking campaign agenda, rather than one based on grievance and vengeance. All of this may be too much for the current crop of challengers who mainly walk on eggshells when it comes to Trump. More likely, it will take another round of election defeats before Republicans shake Trump’s Faustian grip and set out to rebuild their party.
Henry, again, thank you for your clear-eyed analysis of our deplorable state of affairs.
Solid analysis. Here’s another “what-if” for your grist mill:
What if BOTH Biden and Trump flare out during the coming months (perhaps for different reasons: health/accident, criminal indictments/convictions, etc.)?
Think of the craziness that would ensue in both parties as the election timetable diminishes… if the field in both parties were abruptly wide open!
That’s the scenario I have nightmares about.