Month: June 2023

Donald Trump has now been criminally indicted for the second time this year, with perhaps more to come.^[1]The same prosecutor who brought these charges is also investigating Trump’s actions relating to the January 6 attack on the Capitol, and authorities in Georgia are investigating him for possible … Continue reading  The second indictment, brought by federal Department of Justice Special Counsel Jack Smith, involves Trump’s alleged improper possession and handling of classified documents and obstruction of efforts by federal officials to recover them.

This indictment elicited the usual response from Trump.  He claimed to be totally innocent, once again the victim of a “witch hunt” conducted by a corrupt, even deranged, prosecutor. The reaction of many other prominent Republicans and their media allies was more disturbing, although just as  predictable. They joined Trump in condemning the Justice Department, echoing his claims that the indictment was politically motivated and a case of selective prosecution.

It’s true that Trump has been subjected to arguably partisan and unfounded legal attacks. The Russian collusion accusations that consumed much of his presidency have been thoroughly debunked. And Trump’s first indictment in New York relating to Stormy Daniels hush money payments was greeted by widespread skepticism as legally dubious and politically motivated. However, this second indictment is much harder to downplay.

It’s also true that many prominent officials—including President Biden, Hillary Clinton, and Mike Pence–have been lax (to say the least) in their treatment of classified documents. Moreover, leaking classified information is standard practice in Washington. The key difference here is that, according to the indictment, Trump engaged in obstruction and deceit in rebuffing federal officials seeking the return of classified documents. Paragraph 7 of the indictment alleges that Trump–

• • • suggested that his attorneys falsely claim to the FBI and grand jury that he did not have subpoenaed documents;
    • directed a staffer to conceal the documents;
    • suggested that his attorney hide or destroy the documents; and
    • caused a certification to be submitted to the FBI and grand jury falsely claiming that all subpoenaed documents had been produced while knowing that this was not true.

Even many legal experts on the right recognize that the charges here are fundamentally different and far more serious than previous accusations. (See, e.g., here, here, here, and here.) Bill Barr, Trump’s former attorney general, pulled no punches in a TV interview, observing that if even half the indictment can be proved, Trump is “toast.” He added:

“It’s a very detailed indictment and it’s very, very damning. This idea of presenting Trump as a victim here, a victim of a witch hunt, is ridiculous. Yes, he’s been a victim in the past. Yes, his adversaries have obsessively pursued him with phony claims. And I’ve been at his side, defending against them when he is a victim. But this is much different. He’s not a victim here.”^[2]More recently, Barr authored a comprehensive analysis of the indictment, including a point-by-point rebuttal of arguments seeking to minimize it.

Like anyone else, Trump is entitled to a presumption of innocence. However, Republicans, including several of his competitors for the GOP presidential nomination, were not content simply to make that point. Instead, they chose to join Trump in questioning the legitimacy of the charges. Trump’s supporters generally avoided addressing the facts laid out in the indictment. Rather, they focused on the Justice Department’s failure to pursue prominent Democrats who mishandled classified information.

As noted above, however, the others did not engage in the type of obstruction and lies that Trump is accused of here. Indeed, his alleged behavior in this case is all too typical of and unique to Trump. His long history of serial deception, flouting governmental norms, and showing contempt for the rule of law has already demonstrated his unfitness for public office. Yet most Republican voters as well as many of their elected officials and media boosters still accept Trump as their champion.

Sadly, much of the Republican Party has lost its moral compass and its common sense. While Trump’s latest indictment still may not be enough to dissuade his core supporters, it probably will further alienate the larger public and jeopardize his election prospects even more. Republicans can look forward to another round of election losses in 2024 unless they somehow come to see and acknowledge Trump for what he is and part ways with him.

Donald Trump will almost surely play a pivotal role in the election as the Republican nominee or as a spoiler. Either way, he is likely to cement a win for the Democratic ticket.

While Trump retains a substantial base in the Republican party and is the odds-on favorite to win the GOP nomination, he will face a huge challenge in the general election. His negatives consistently exceed his positives by a wide margin. In every election since his surprise win in 2016 he lost or was a major contributor to Republican losses.

Current polling shows Trump as competitive with or even leading President Biden in a rematch that most Americans dread. However, it’s unwise to put much stock in polls at this early stage. Trump is likely to fade as time goes by and “Trump fatigue” intensifies. His conduct in the wake of his 2020 defeat highlights his liabilities. His obsessive claims of a stolen election are patently and almost surely knowingly false. His actions relating to the election and the January 6 attack on the Capitol were clearly impeachable if not criminal. Trump’s legal problems could mount. His dubious indictment in New York probably gave him a boost, firing up his base and putting his GOP opponents in an awkward position. However, more serious criminal charges would be difficult to blow off.

Trump’s CNN “town hall” fiasco and other recent appearances reaffirm (if there was any lingering doubt) that he has not changed. He will once again campaign as a combative, divisive, thoroughly dishonest con artist and will make little effort to reach beyond his base. By contrast, although his administration has pursued a progressive agenda on many fronts, Biden will probably campaign as a moderate with much wider appeal to the electorate. Finally, while both are weak and highly unpopular candidates, Trump stands out as downright dangerous. He has repeatedly shown  disdain for basic democratic norms and the rule of law.

In short, Trump is very unlikely to win back the presidency if he becomes the Republican nominee. But even if he loses the nomination, he will probably remain a major drag on the Republican ticket. Trump being Trump, it’s nearly impossible to picture him in this scenario graciously conceding and endorsing the winning GOP nominee. Far more likely, he would refuse to accept the primary results, perhaps stay in the race as an independent, or at a minimum discourage his voters from backing the nominee. In what figures to be a close general election, another Republican nominee would struggle mightily without the support of Trump and his base voters, or worse, in the face of their active opposition.

A Republican loss in the presidential election with Trump as nominee or spoiler would likely cost Republicans their slim House majority as well. And while the Senate math for 2024 favors a Republican takeover, the Trump effect could also jeopardize that result.

Can Republicans escape the curse of Trump in 2024?  That’s a tall order. They would need to coalesce behind a non-Trump candidate who could somehow surmount the Trump base and win the nomination. Then, the nominee would need enough appeal to general election voters to offset the negative impact of a disgruntled Trump and his loyalists.

No such a candidate has emerged yet. Ron DeSantis, currently Trump’s main competitor, seems ill suited to the role. Instead of concentrating on his substantive accomplishments as Governor of Florida, DeSantis veered off into portraying himself as a combative and divisive mini-Trump “without the baggage.”  This strategy isn’t working either with the Trump base or the broader public. Trump cultists remain loyal to him despite or even because of his “baggage.” They embrace Trump viscerally as a giant middle finger to the elites of both parties and a major irritant to liberals. Why should they settle for an imitation Trump like DeSantis when they can have the real thing? At the same time, DeSantis’s  stunts pandering to the Trump base threaten to alienate non-Trump acolytes who make up most of the electorate.

It’s possible that DeSantis will adopt a new strategy or that another challenger will gain ground. At the very least, however, a successful challenger would need to set themselves apart from Trump by forthrightly rejecting his stolen election lies and condemning his post-election conduct. The challenger would also need to build a positive and forward-looking campaign agenda, rather than one based on grievance and vengeance. All of this may be too much for the current crop of challengers who mainly walk on eggshells when it comes to Trump. More likely, it will take another round of election defeats before Republicans shake Trump’s Faustian grip and set out to rebuild their party.