After Speaker McCarthy’s election fiasco, the conventional wisdom is that the House of Representatives faces two chaotic years of Republicans wreaking havoc and threatening dire consequences for the Nation. But is a more optimistic scenario possible?
It’s hard to argue with the widespread predictions of chaos and dysfunction for the 118th Congress. Certainly, Kevin McCarthy undercut his power as speaker with the many concessions he made in his zeal to reach that office at any cost. Even apart from this year’s speaker election debacle, the recent history of fractious Republican control of the House does not bode well for effective governance. (Ask former Speakers Boehner and Ryan.)
The 20 House members who resisted McCarthy along with other Freedom Caucus types are presumed to be the beneficiaries of McCarthy’s concessions as well as the likely perpetrators of the mayhem to come. But could the concessions work to the benefit of members with more positive agendas, such as what remains of the centrists? Among the concessions are several that grant individual House members greater say over legislation and their leadership than they’ve had in the past. This and the GOP’s thin 222-213 majority give potentially significant influence to small but determined coalitions of any makeup, not just those on the far right.
The centrist ranks of the House are slim and getting slimmer with each election cycle. However, there are pockets of members from both parties who arguably still fit this description: the New Democrat Coalition, the Democratic “Blue Dog” Coalition, the Republican Governance Group, and perhaps most promising, the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus. If a critical mass of centrist members (including at least five committed Republicans) was serious about developing a constructive agenda, courageous enough to work across party lines, and willing to invest the necessary effort, they could form an influential power base of their own within the closely divided House.
Small bipartisan “gangs” of Senators have successfully used this approach to sidestep their more partisan leaders and break impasses on important issues. Most recently, centrist Senator Joe Manchin virtually controlled the Senate agenda during the 117th Congress thanks to its 50-50 split and the filibuster rule. (Of course, individual House members still have much less power to affect legislation than their Senate counterparts even with the recent rules changes.)
It’s true that the challenges would be great. Centrists receive scant attention compared to their more flamboyant colleagues from the fringes such as the Freedom Caucus and the Squad whose grandstanding plays much better with the politicized media, hyper-partisan donors, and monolithic primary voters who dominate today’s political landscape. These forces reward political polarization and reject anything short of ideological purity.
On the other hand, several factors make an effective centrist power base in the House more than a pipe dream. Most notably, Congress is ripe for true reform that moves it toward actually doing the people’s business. The public is fed up with Congress and its members from both parties. Congress ranks dead last in public confidence among American institutions measured by Gallup, coming in most recently with an abysmal 7 percent positive rating. And rightly so. Congress chronically fails to carry out its most basic constitutional responsibilities, leaving pressing national policy challenges unresolved and abdicating its authority to the executive branch and the courts. Its only aspect that remains reliably bipartisan is wild fiscal irresponsibility.
The public also gives extremely low marks to congressional leaders and other politicians of both parties. Contrary to the impression the media conveys, the American public is not nearly as polarized as the political classes. Most Americans prefer moderation, compromise, and problem-solving over political extremism and constant discord. A congressional coalition that embodies the former traits should appeal to ordinary citizens of all political stripes–Democrats, Republicans, and independents alike.
Additionally, House Republicans lack any serious plan for governance. McCarthy has no clear goals other than obtaining and presumably retaining the speakership. His tormentors on the right likewise lack any realistic policy agenda. Some are just self-promoters; those capable of looking beyond themselves seem more interested in undermining the federal government than running it. Also, Trump no longer inevitably pulls the strings of congressional Republicans.
In short, no Republican agenda for the 118th Congress is on the horizon beyond politicized investigations, quixotic show votes, and games of chicken over government shutdowns and debt defaults. A constructive and substantive House agenda aimed at real governance could fill the policy void.
Such an agenda might start with a few basic planks that should resonate widely with the public:
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- A firm commitment to oppose government shutdowns and default on the national debt.
- Support for a return to the “regular order” of timely enacting individual appropriations bills and opposition to rushed, opaque “omnibus” bills. (Things the House leadership has already endorsed.)
- High priority oversight and legislative initiatives to combat massive fraud, waste, and abuse. (The federal government made an estimated $281 billion of improper payments in 2021.)
- Concrete initiatives to address major performance shortcomings in the federal government that attract little political or media attention but are a great disservice to American citizens. (GAO’s “high risk list” provides a roadmap.)
- Rational and achievable steps to get the unsustainable federal debt, which currently exceeds $24 trillion, under control. (The blueprint developed by the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Budget is a good starting point.)
From there, a centrist group could select from an extensive menu of important policy issues that divide the political extremes but offer solutions that have broad public support. They include healthcare, immigration, crime, and tax policy, just to name a few.
Ironically, to be successful a centrist coalition would need to borrow some tactics from the more extreme House groups such as aggressively seeking publicity and external support. While a centrist agenda lacks bombast that generates headlines, it should spark the interest of whatever media and other influencers remain serious and not too ideologically biased. In terms of funding, one advantage some high-profile fringe members have is relying primarily on small donors, which enables them to avoid dependence on major PACs and the like. A centrist coalition could also employ this model.
Finally, an effective centrist coalition would have to be willing to use hardball tactics when necessary, recognizing that they hold the speaker’s fate in their hands. If, for example, McCarthy bowed to right wing pressure and refused to allow a floor vote on essential legislation such as a stopgap funding measure or one needed to avoid a debt default, the coalition could join with a presumably united Democratic minority to replace him as speaker.