2022 Midterms: American Voters Repudiate Trump; Will the GOP?

As various themes emerge from the 2022 midterm elections, one stands out above all others: the thorough repudiation of Donald Trump. While Trump was not on the ballot, he did all he could to make the election about him. He largely succeeded in this, but the results were ugly for him and his party. Most of the candidates he pushed in the primaries failed in competitive general elections. Even some who prevailed ran well behind other Republicans on the ticket. For example, J.D. Vance probably won his Senate seat despite rather than because of Trump; GOP Governor DeWine ran far ahead of Vance and likely pulled him over the finish line. (Tellingly, Vance ignored Trump in his victory speech.)

By contrast, GOP candidates whom Trump opposed or stayed away from did well. In particular, Trump nemesis Brian Kemp handily won reelection as Governor of Georgia and potential nemesis Ron DeSantis scored an overwhelming victory in Florida.

Candidates who actively campaigned on Trump’s bogus stolen election claims fared poorly in competitive elections. Thankfully, all election deniers running for offices with election administration roles in potential swing states lost. We can also be thankful that losing GOP candidates across the board have eschewed Trump’s stolen election tactics—at least so far.

The abysmal results of Trump’s efforts this year represent only the latest in a string of political failures on his part. With Trump at the helm, Republicans lost the House in 2018 and the presidency in 2020. Trump’s stolen election antics in the wake of his 2020 defeat are widely considered directly responsible for the loss of the two Georgia seats that cost the GOP its Senate majority.

It’s fair to say Trump personally cost Republicans control of the Senate again this year by discouraging strong GOP candidates from running in several states and backing weak candidates in others, based solely on their professed fealty to him. Democrats will wind up actually gaining a Senate seat if Herschel Walker, Trump’s most pathetic pick, loses his runoff election in Georgia. Trump was also a drag on the GOP’s unexpectedly challenging efforts to regain control of the House. He helped flip two safe Republican seats to the Democrats by engineering successful primary challenges by weak candidates to Republican incumbents who had voted to impeach him. (See here and here.)

Some right-leaning media outlets acknowledged Trump’s electoral failures. A Wall Street Journal editorial declared him the Republicans’ “biggest loser” of election night. The New York Post portrayed him as “Trumpty Dumpty.” Outlets on the left enthusiastically chimed in, labeling the 2022 elections Trump’s “emperor has no clothes” moment. (See here and here.)

Democrats anticipated Trump’s potential as a major liability for the GOP in 2022. They invested heavily in Republican primaries to promote his favored candidates, whom they judged easier to beat in the general election. Such meddling was widely (and rightly) condemned as a cynical abuse of the electoral process. However, it worked in many close contests. No doubt we will see more of this if Trump chooses to run for president again in 2024 or seeks to reprise his failed role as kingmaker.

Exit polls confirmed Trump’s negatives. Voters viewed him unfavorably by a margin of 58 to 39 percent. These numbers are worse than President Biden’s low marks and suggest that Trump would lose the presidential election again in 2024 against even a weak Democratic candidate.

When all the above political failures are added to Trump’s outrageous, clearly impeachable, and perhaps criminal conduct following his 2020 loss, one might think sentient Republicans would be chomping at the bit to move on from him. Trump proves over and over that he is focused entirely on himself and cares nothing about the country, the Republican Party, or even his most dedicated followers. It’s hard to imagine anyone more transparently unfit, substantively and politically, to run for president—or even to play a significant role in the 2024 election. As of this writing, however, it appears Republicans may not be ready to stop following Trump over more cliffs. Said one political operative: “We tend to be slow learners.”

There are probably two main factors at play here. First, Trump retains an unshakable and sizable base of cult-like followers that is not open to persuasion and may not be transferable even to Trump-imitating candidates. Second, many prominent Republican politicians are craven opportunists who, like Trump, put their personal interests above country and party. They have lived in fear of Trump and dependent on his favor for years. While they surely recognize his liabilities, it will be very hard for them to muster the courage to oppose him.

Some signs are emerging. Rep. Elise Stefanik, a Trump sycophant who replaced Liz Cheney in the House GOP leadership following her cancellation for opposing Trump, endorsed Trump for 2024 three days after the election. She described him as still the leader of the Republican party and “the most popular Republican in America.” Kevin McCarthy, who desperately wants to be Speaker if Republicans gain the House majority, has been noncommittal so far. However, he has a history of backing off criticism of Trump and is already under pressure from Trump operatives and the Trumpist House Freedom Caucus.

On the Senate side, some members are trying to shift blame for the GOP’s poor election showing from Trump to Mitch McConnell. Of course, McConnell is a long time Trump whipping boy who most recently had the audacity to tell the truth about the “candidate quality” problem facing Republicans this year thanks to Trump.

How all this plays out remains to be seen. We should learn more from the reactions if Trump goes ahead with his anticipated (albeit incongruous) announcement on November 15 to run again for President.