Democrats picked the right candidate. Given the closeness of the presidential election and relatively poor Democratic results in down-ballot races, any Democratic candidate to the left of Biden probably would have lost.
Election spending was prodigious but not necessarily effective. Spending on the 2020 elections (presidential and congressional) totaled $14 billion, more than twice what was spent in 2016. Four 2020 Senate elections are now the most expensive ever, with the vast majority of the money coming from out of state. (These records may be eclipsed by the upcoming Senate runoff elections in Georgia.) However, monumental spending rarely led to great results. Democrats contributed almost twice as much as Republicans in total spending but achieved only a narrow presidential victory in terms of swing state margins and generally disappointing results in Senate, House, and state races. The most expensive Senate race of all was in North Carolina, where Thom Tillis eked out reelection. Huge amounts were invested in attempts to oust Republican Senators McConnell, Graham, Ernst, and Collins. All won reelection handily.
Thankfully, it appears the courts will not play a major role in the election. While Trump is mounting legal challenges to election results in several states, almost all appear to be either frivolous or insignificant. The Supreme Court dodged a bullet on the one potentially serious challenge—the Pennsylvania Supreme Court’s likely unconstitutional decision to override state election law by extending the deadline for receipt of ballots past election day. (See here for background.) Since Biden’s margin of victory in Pennsylvania far exceeded the number of ballots received after election day, this case now seems to be moot. For the future, however, courts and election officials should be very wary of superseding state election laws absent a compelling legal justification. At least five Supreme Court justices evidently regard such action as violating the Constitution, which assigns legislatures (not judges or other state officials) the role of prescribing the times, places, and manner of holding elections.
The media and pollsters were way off again in their predictions. There is already much analysis and discussion of this problem. One striking aspect is that almost all the mistakes affecting presidential and down-ballot contests go in the same direction: overestimating Democratic performance and underestimating Republicans. Defective polling can’t be blamed on so-called “shy” Trump voters since it was so pervasive across different areas and races. In one particularly noteworthy example, not a single poll predicted Susan Collins’ easy win in Maine.
Voters put a damper on identity politics. According to exit polls, Trump picked up some support among Black and Hispanic/Latino voters while Biden gained ground with white voters. Minority voters still went heavily Democratic, but perhaps Democrats can no longer treat them as monolithic voting blocks. Instead, this may signal a gradual trend toward sorting out minority voters not by race or ethnicity but along the same lines as other voters–age, sex, economic and educational level, etc. It’s also significant that California voters soundly rejected an initiative to revive race preferences in public hiring, education, and contracting.
In the election’s aftermath, Trump is erasing any lingering doubts about his unfitness for office. He continues to undermine democratic norms and now the integrity of our election system itself by refusing to concede in the face of a clear outcome delivered by the voters (see below), asserting evidence-free claims of systemic election fraud, and impeding the transition process. It remains to be seen what further damage he will inflict during his waning days in office.
Republicans need to take a stand against this debacle, and soon. More than a week after the election, Trump’s forces have yet to produce any evidence of systematic fraud and a macro analysis of voting patterns strongly militates against this possibility. Very few, even on the right, take Trump’s claims seriously or dispute that Biden won the election fair and square. Yet most Republican politicians remain unwilling to acknowledge Biden as the winner and call on Trump to concede, or at the very least demand that he allow the transition to proceed. These craven, cynical folks are apparently focused exclusively on the runoff elections in Georgia and doubtless fear offending Trump and his base, whose enthusiastic support they will need. However, things will come to a head regarding the presidential election well before the Georgia runoffs in January. Under the schedule prescribed by federal law, the “safe harbor” deadline for states to certify their election results is December 8 and the electoral college meets on December 14. At some point very soon, Republican office holders must put country over party by affirming Biden’s election and condemning this most recent Trumpian farce.