The tragic death of George Floyd at the hands of Minneapolis police and other recent incidents feed the narrative promoted by Black Lives Matter (BLM) and re-enforced by much of the media that cops are engaged in deadly warfare against African Americans. The BLM website (www.Blacklivesmatter.com/whatwebelieve) asserts that Blacks are the victims of “rampant and deliberate violence inflicted on us by the state.” Statistics and objective studies flatly refute this narrative.
Most police killings (of both Blacks and Whites) occur where police encounter armed, violent individuals who threaten them or others. Such encounters involve African Americans disproportionately. While Blacks are killed at a much higher rate than their share of the population, this disparity vanishes when their disproportionate rate of violent crime (overwhelmingly committed by young Black males against other Blacks) is factored in. The reality is that disproportionate police killings of Blacks will subside only when disproportionate Black violent crime subsides.
At the same time, it bears emphasis that disproportionate Black crime rates reflect a host of other racial disparities impacting African Americans that do stem from racism and persist after centuries of overt race discrimination. Fatal police encounters are only one symptom of these deeper problems. Until policymakers address the underlying problems, little is likely to change.
Data sources
Comprehensive data on police killings of civilians is limited since there is no official, comprehensive database–a serious shortcoming in itself. The best available data sources come from outside government. The following analysis relies primarily on the Washington Post’s “Fatal Force” database because it covers all lethal shootings by police from 2015 forward and is readily searchable by race and other relevant criteria. While George Floyd’s killing did not involve firearms, shootings comprise more than 90 percent of all fatal intentional use of force cases involving police. This analysis also relies on a series of studies that have been done in recent years as described here, here, here, here, here, here and here.
Preliminary observations
A few overall points are worth making before delving into the statistics and studies. First, the vast majority of African Americans, like other citizens, are law-abiding individuals who never experience violent encounters with police.
Second, police killings of civilians of any race are rare. Nationwide, cops interact with civilians over 50 million times each year and make over 10 million arrests annually. Fatalities at the hands of police constitute a minuscule percentage of these interactions. According to the Post’s database, police on average fatally shoot close to 1,000 civilians per year, of whom about 225 to 250 are Black. This represents less than one death out of every 10,000 arrests and at most one Black death out of every 40,000. Of course, all such deaths, Black and otherwise, are concerning and deserve scrutiny. However, they hardly show a pattern of rampant violence directed against Blacks or anyone else.
Third, police killings of unarmed civilians are rarer still. Over 90 percent of those shot dead by police are armed. Nationwide, 55 unarmed shooting fatalities occurred in 2019, including 14 Blacks and 25 Whites. Moreover, some victims classified as “unarmed” were killed while attacking police officers. Almost all persons killed by police, armed and unarmed, resisted the police in some way. Several highly publicized cases (including Floyd’s) involve police encounters that began fairly routinely but escalated due to actions of the victim.
Objective studies refute the narrative of racial animus in police killings
With the foregoing perspectives in mind, what do the data show about fatal police encounters? While police fatally shoot more Whites than Blacks each year, the percentage of Black victims significantly exceeds their representation in the general population. African Americans constitute roughly 13 percent of the Nation’s population but account for about 24 percent of fatal police shootings. Many contend that this disparity proves racial bias. However, looking only at demographic representation has little probative value. For example, using this sole criterion would mean that police engage in massive sex discrimination since 96 percent of fatal shooting victims are male.
What, then, does explain disproportionate police killings of Blacks? Studies consistently find that the statistical disparity in police shootings of Blacks evaporates when the even more disproportionate share of violent crime they commit is factored in. Blacks account for 58 percent of all murder arrests and 40 percent of those apprehended for all violent crimes. Most police killings occur when cops encounter potentially violent situations with armed, threatening individuals. Such encounters involve African Americans disproportionately, the great majority being young armed males. It is also noteworthy that the studies find no disparity in the race of police officers doing the shooting; Black officers are just as likely as White officers to shoot Black victims.
Activists and the media turn a blind eye to all of this and focus instead on a few individual cases that appear (at least at first blush) to be the most egregious, particularly those rare instances in which the victim was unarmed. Some cases, such as Floyd’s killing, do seem wholly unjustified. In other highly publicized cases, however, police culpability is ambiguous or nonexistent. The highly publicized 2014 killing of Michael Brown in Ferguson, Missouri, fits the latter category. The cop who shot Brown was exonerated both by local officials and the Obama Justice Department, yet his case is still widely invoked as a prime example of police racism and prominent politicians still falsely describe Brown’s killing as “murder.”
Those promoting the narrative of racist police killings also ignore the fact that dubious police-involved killings are not unique to Blacks. As one commentator observed, for every Black person killed by police, there usually is at least one White person killed in a similar way. For example, the 2016 killing of a White man (Tony Timpa) by Dallas police was strikingly similar to Floyd’s. Like most cases of White victims, Timpa’s death received little if any national publicity.
The victims of violent crime committed by Blacks are overwhelmingly Black.
The toll that violent crime takes on Black lives is still another obvious fact that activists and the media either ignore or deflect. According to the FBI, 2,870 Blacks were murdered in 2016; at least 2,570 (90%) were killed by other Blacks. Shockingly, homicide is the leading cause of death for Blacks up to age 45. Blacks between the ages of ten and 43 die of homicide at thirteen times the rate of Whites, according to the Centers for Disease Control. Thirty-eight juveniles have been murdered by gun violence in Chicago so far this year, including five under the age of 10.
Less policing leads to increased Black deaths
The so-called “Ferguson effect” posits that police become less proactive when they are subjected to withering criticism, which in turn leads to increased crime. The term was coined to explain the rise in crime in Ferguson, Missouri, following widespread outrage over the Michael Brown killing. Another dramatic example is what happened in Baltimore in the wake of the controversial death of Freddie Gray while in police custody and the widespread protests and rioting that followed. Many American cities are experiencing a surge in murders following the George Floyd killing and other recent police-involved incidents. The Ferguson effect theory has its detractors as well as proponents. However, a recent study by Harvard economists provides supporting data for it. The study found that in cases of police killings of Blacks that went “viral” (i.e., generated great controversy), there followed large and statistically significant increases in homicides and total crime. Other studies (described here) reach similar conclusions.
The Ferguson effect probably explains at least in part the recent dramatic increases in murders. This is particularly likely where politicians berate police before investigations are complete. An example is the non-fatal shooting of Jacob Blake in Kenosha, Wisconsin. The Wisconsin governor immediately condemned the police and the lieutenant governor described the shooting, bizarrely and without evidence, as “some sort of vendetta taken out on a member of our community.” While acknowledging that the facts need to be investigated, vice presidential candidate Kamala Harris nonetheless asserted that the police officer who shot Blake should be charged with a crime.
Some police reforms are needed
The lack of evidence of racial animus in police killings does not mean there are no problems with policing. Studies find race-based disparities in a variety of more routine police actions that do not involve fatal force. Blacks are more likely than Whites to be subject to traffic stops and “stop and frisk” encounters. Blacks also report rough physical treatment and verbal abuse from police at a higher rate than Whites. (A recent Washington Post article catalogs studies finding such racial disparities in policing, among other components of the criminal justice system.) These disparities likely result from widely-held stereotypes of Black males as potentially dangerous and prone to criminal behavior. They also explain why African Americans have significantly less confidence than Whites that police will treat them fairly, although a majority of Blacks (71%) are at least somewhat confident of receiving positive treatment from police.
Race aside, there are also concerns that police resort to force too quickly and use force excessively against both Blacks and Whites. Even legally justified killings by police may still be avoidable. Some reforms to address these problems have been enacted in the wake of the Floyd killing, such as limiting “chokeholds” and other dubious police techniques, improving police training, and enhancing accountability. Reforms such as these have the potential to improve policing and strengthen relationships between police and the citizens they serve.
Bottom line: The key to reducing disproportionate Black deaths at the hands of police is to reduce disproportionate Black violent crime
Demonizing police and reducing police presence, particularly in high crime areas, will not save Black lives–at least innocent ones. On the contrary, it will cost innocent Black lives. What’s needed is not fewer police but better policing. Well-conceived reforms can enhance law enforcement and save lives. However, as long as combating violent crime remains a core police function and Blacks commit a disproportionate share of that crime, they will inevitably remain disproportionate victims of police killings.