Given the hyper-politicization and downright toxicity that define Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation process, it’s hard to predict what bearing an objective analysis of Christine Blasey Ford’s accusation against him will have on the outcome. Very little of the massive political and media attention heaped on this subject addresses the specifics of the case. Another challenge is the age of the accusation and lack of key factual details supplied by Blasey Ford. If one does focus on the specifics, however, a recent development looks to be highly relevant.
Last Saturday night CNN reported that Blasey Ford had identified a longtime friend, Leland Keyser, as someone who attended the party where the alleged assault occurred. After Keyser was contacted by the Senate Judiciary Committee, her lawyer submitted a statement to the Committee that “Ms. Keyser does not know Mr. Kavanaugh and she has no recollection of ever being at a party or gathering where he was present, with, or without Dr. Ford.” Keyser’s statement means that none of the four people named by Blasey Ford as attending the party support her claim that it ever happened. Kavanaugh and Mark Judge, whom she named as a witness to the assault, both vehemently denied her allegation. The other person she named as being at the party but not witnessing the assault, Patrick (“PJ”) Smythe, told the Committee he had no knowledge of any of it.
On top of the absence of witness corroboration, there seem to be no other investigative avenues available to either confirm or refute Blasey Ford’s accusation given her own lack of recall as to the date (even the year), location, and other basic aspects of the alleged assault. Therefore, the truth or falsity of her charges probably can never be determined definitively. Nevertheless, Keyser’s lack of knowledge casts serious doubt on Blasey Ford’s account as she has presented it thus far, particularly since Keyser is a close friend and supporter of hers. (She says she believes Blasey Ford even though she cannot vouch for any of her story.)
Blasey Ford and her lawyers brushed off Keyser’s lack of recall. Blasey Ford told the Washington Post that she didn’t expect Keyser to remember “because nothing remarkable happened there, as far as Keyser was aware.” In commenting on the CNN story, Blasey Ford’s lawyer added that Keyser couldn’t be expected to remember the party because “nothing of consequence happened to her.”
These explanations strain credulity when considered in relation to Blasey Ford’s account of the events of that night. According to her Post interview and letter to Senator Feinstein, the “stumbling drunk” Kavanaugh and Judge “corralled” her into a bedroom as she was headed for a bathroom up a short flight of stairs from the living room. They played loud music from the bedroom and Kavanaugh put his hand over her mouth to stifle her screams. She feared Kavanaugh might kill her. Kavanaugh was on top of her on a bed trying to remove her clothing. At some point Judge jumped on top of Kavanaugh and her, “sending all three tumbling.” She got away, ran across to the bathroom, and locked herself in. (It’s reasonable to assume that Blasey Ford would have resumed screaming audibly upon her escape from Kavanaugh.) Kavanaugh and Judge then “loudly stumbled” down the stairs and engaged the other two people who were there (Keyser and Smythe). She subsequently exited the bathroom, ran down the stairs, and “fled the house.”
The events Blasey Ford describes were raucous and dramatic to say the least. Surely they would have been quite “remarkable” to Keyser, as well as frightening and memorable, if she had noticed any of them. Moreover, it’s hardly plausible that Keyser could have been completely oblivious to the loud and chaotic scene going on around her, particularly since she was one of only two other people in the house. The lawyer’s suggestion that Keyser put all of it out of her mind because nothing bad happened to her personally is no more plausible.
Finally, victims of sexual assaults often fail to tell others about them for a variety of reasons. But is it plausible that Blasey Ford would not have said anything to Keyser about Kavanaugh and Judge either as she was fleeing the house or within days thereafter, if only to warn her about them? After all, she describes them as dangerous, perhaps even homicidal, sexual predators and it was certainly foreseeable that her close friend Keyser might encounter them again. At the very least, one would have expected Blasey Ford to give Keyser (as well as her other friends who ran in the same circles) a general warning to steer clear of these guys without necessarily going into the details of her assault.
Of course, none of the above proves that Blasey Ford’s accusation is untrue. Absent a Perry Mason moment at the upcoming hearing or another game-changing development, we probably will never know for sure where the truth lies here. However, the lack of recall by anyone supposedly present at the party, particularly Keyser, raises a host of questions for Blasey Ford. Hopefully, they will be explored fully and fairly at the hearing.
N.B. The Kavanaugh confirmation mess changes daily. New uncorroborated charges of sexual misconduct against him emerged last night. It would not be surprising to see more come out of the woodwork as the week progresses. However, such accusations may backfire against Kavanaugh’s opponents and generate sympathy for him if they continue to be unsubstantiated and increasingly far-fetched. For example, Michael Avenatti, showboating lawyer for porn star Stormy Daniels, claims to have multiple witnesses who say Kavanaugh organized and participated in gang rapes of drunken girls while in high school. If the FBI missed something of this magnitude during their many background investigations of Kavanaugh, calls for them to do more on the case clearly are misguided.