Donald Trump is toxic to the Republican Party and the American political system. Any future role for him either as candidate or kingmaker can only do further damage to our already badly fractured politics. Yet elected Republicans still try to ignore his outrages, or even worse, seek to appease him. These strategies are not only unprincipled and cowardly but politically fraught. Until Republican leaders muster the courage and common sense to confront Trump’s lies, he will remain a serious threat both to their party and our democracy.
House Republicans are poised to remove Liz Cheney from her leadership position for daring to speak the truth about Trump. This latest episode began when Trump declared that the 2020 presidential election, which he still falsely claims was stolen from him, “will be, from this day forth, known as THE BIG LIE!” Cheney responded with the obvious truth that the election was not stolen, adding that anyone making such a claim is spreading the real “BIG LIE” and “poisoning our democratic system.” She doubled down in an op-ed urging Republicans to “steer away from the dangerous and anti-democratic Trump cult of personality.”
Rep. Anthony Gonzalez, one of Cheney’s few supporters, wryly observed: “If a prerequisite for leading our conference is continuing to lie to our voters, then Liz is not the best fit.” Her likely replacement, Rep. Elise Stefanik, is clearly a better fit from this perspective. Stefanik has become a Trump acolyte who shamelessly espouses his lies. However, while purging Chaney may suit the exigencies of the moment, such pandering to Trump does not bode well for the future of the Republican Party or the broader political landscape.
Most elected Republicans surely recognize the truth of what Cheney said. Many no doubt share her concerns as well as her distain for Trump. However, they are paralyzed by fear of antagonizing Trump and his perceived formidable base of hard-core supporters. In this, Republicans fall into two camps: those, like Senate Minority Leader McConnell, who struggle to turn a blind eye to Trump’s continuing outrages in the hope that he will somehow fade away; and those, like House Minority Leader McCarthy, who actively embrace and appease Trump in the apparent belief that he is still a political asset. Both strategies are, of course, unprincipled. They are also unlikely to succeed. What they probably will do is further embolden Trump, thereby creating more problems for their party (and the rest of us) going forward.
As a matter of principle, the case for repudiating Trump is open and shut. Republicans can point to some noteworthy accomplishments during Trump’s presidency. As Cheney notes, however, the problem is Trump himself. Trump is a deeply flawed individual who spent four year proving himself morally and temperamentally unfit to be president. He lied incessantly, violated minimal norms of presidential behavior, and governed erratically. He relished being a polarizing figure and made no effort to reach beyond his base. He ultimately failed because he was too undisciplined and self-absorbed to be the leader the Nation needed during the COVID-19 crisis.
Trump reached his nadir in the aftermath of the 2020 presidential election with his bald- faced lies about widespread fraud and his encouragement of unconstitutional efforts to overturn the election result. These actions led to his second (and more serious) impeachment, which would have justified conviction and removal had he not already left office. Even McConnell declared Trump “practically and morally responsible for provoking” the January 6 attack on the Capitol with his “wild falsehoods,” describing Trump’s actions preceding the riots as “a disgraceful dereliction of duty.” He added that once the riots were underway, Trump failed to “take steps so federal law could be faithfully executed, and order restored,” and instead, “watched television happily as the chaos unfolded. He kept pressing his scheme to overturn the election!”
(McConnell has since reverted to his trademark cynicism and hyper-partisanship. When asked recently whether he would support Trump if he was the Republican nominee in 2024, McConnell replied “absolutely.” Likewise, McCarthy initially urged Trump “to accept his share of responsibility” for the attack on the Capitol, but quickly resumed his obsequiousness toward Trump.)
The current Republican strategies for dealing with Trump are politically short-sighted as well as unprincipled. While they can sideline Cheney, Republicans cannot avoid a reckoning over Trump indefinitely. As the next elections approach, their candidates will surely be pressed hard either to repudiate or embrace him both by their Democratic opponents and by Trump himself. Trump, of course, will insist that earning his support requires first and foremost endorsing his lies.
It’s hard to envision siding with Trump as a winning political strategy in any election contest that turns on voters beyond his base. Trump left office as one of the most unpopular presidents in recent history. He scored the lowest first-term average approval rating of any modern president (41%), and fell into the 30’s at the end of his term. Not only was he one of the few recent presidents to fail reelection but Republicans lost control of both the House and Senate on his watch. His tantrums are widely blamed for Republican losses of the two Senate seats in Georgia runoffs. There are indications that he is losing ground even among Republicans since leaving office.
Trump particularly figures to be an albatross in the 2022 Senate elections. Six of the nine Senate races currently rated as potentially competitive are in states Biden won in 2020. Continued allegiance to Trump will probably also impede Republican chances of regaining the presidency in 2024. Even if Trump won the Republican nomination, he would have little chance of being elected again. It’s equally doubtful that a would-be Trump clone such as Sen. Hawley or Cruz could win.
A better political strategy for Republicans is to focus on policy positions likely to appeal to a broader range of voters than Trump’s base and to promote candidates who don’t carry Trump’s massive baggage. Trump resonated with millions of disaffected voters who are not faring well economically and feel that the elites of both parties ignore their interests. While this constituency is often denigrated as consisting only of angry “working class” whites, it is coming to include more minorities as well. Candidates who appeal to these voters in a less divisive way than Trump could have even greater success. Such candidates could also attract the many voters who lean toward traditional conservative policies and values or disfavor liberal overreach but couldn’t bring themselves to pull the lever for Trump.
The first step is for sensible Republicans, indeed all non-masochistic Republicans, to just say no to Trump.